Payroll Tax Receipts for the Month of May were down 1.5 – 2 percent from the Month of April. Now, the NFP Report and Payroll Taxes measure different items, but they both target the same truth and they both help gauge the overall strength of the labor market. A decline of 1.5–2% in payroll tax receipts for May suggests weaker payroll activity, which could foreshadow disappointing job growth
However, we have the benefit of seeing the upcoming seasonal factors and if this pattern holds, the June data might reflect a genuine job bounce rather than an artificially inflated one.
